While it’s too early to know exactly what this year’s fire season will hold, a wildfire expert says early forecasts suggest the stage is being set for a busy summer.
Thompson Rivers University wildfire expert Mike Flannigan said ongoing drought conditions in B.C. are just one indicator.
“The drought sets the stage, it doesn't guarantee an active fire season but it kind of has everything primed, ready to go,” Flannigan said.
He said long-range forecasts should be taken with a large grain of salt, but most models are predicting warm weather starting as soon as April.
He said precipitation projections should be taken with “even more salt.”
“But the one I use suggests it's going to be drier than normal through much of the fire season, and so warm and dry, that's a bad combination,” he said. “Things are lining up that it could be an active fire season for B.C.”
In a statement to Castanet, the BC Wildfire Service says it’s still early in the year and it is continuing to monitor conditions.
BCWS said despite an unusually dry January, much of B.C. has received above-average precipitation in November and more mild temperatures in December, which could aid conditions if more moisture was absorbed before the ground froze.
BCWS said drought conditions are impacting parts of the Prince George and Cariboo Fire Centres, and if the trend holds there could be early season activity, including from holdover fires.
“The intensity of the fire season is very dependent on precipitation levels and drying patterns as we move into the spring and summer,” BCWS said.
“Long-term weather forecasts currently indicate a warmer-than-normal and wet trend heading into the spring, which could benefit spring conditions.”
Preventing what we can
In B.C., about 40 per cent of fire starts are caused by human activity.
John Paolozzi, BCWS wildfire prevention communications officer, says human-caused fires start to pick up during the spring due to low moisture content in forests and vegetation, and increased activity outside.
“We think of lightning as the major cause of fire starts in summer, but in spring it's human activity, and typically this is associated with when people are having open fires,” he said.
Paolozzi recommended people check online for fire prohibitions and restrictions, follow burn safety rules, and to make sure they are always keeping an eye on fires, ensuring they are properly extinguished.
“We can't do much about the lightning-caused fires,” Flannigan said. “The human-caused ones, they're preventable, so let's prevent them.”
Flannigan added the number of human-caused fires have been decreasing across the province.
Make a plan
Paolozzi said spring is also a good time to start thinking about FireSmarting homes, including removing flammable debris from yards, cleaning out storage areas and removing flammable shrubbery near homes, among other recommendations.
“If you are doing any renovations, now is the time to think about what you can do to make your home more FireSmart in the future,” he said.
He said it is also a good time to begin planning for wildfire season, including by downloading the service’s app, putting together a grab and go bag, and creating an evacuation plan.
More resources on FireSmart and open burn safety rules are available online.
