HALIFAX — Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston led the Progressive Conservatives to a decisive majority win Tuesday, bucking a trend in recent provincial elections that saw incumbents roughed up by the electorate or soundly defeated.
As the returns rolled in, the Tories were leading or elected in 42 of the legislature's 55 ridings, the New Democrats were at nine, the Liberals had three and there was one Independent.
With the latest results, the New Democrats were poised to form the official Opposition, replacing the Liberals, who appeared to be in an electoral free fall.
The NDP campaign was notable for leader Claudia Chender’s strong performance during the televised debates. As well, it would appear her focus on housing and affordability resonated with voters.
As for the Liberals, five incumbents chose not to run before the election was called and two members of the legislature crossed the floor to the Tories in the past year. The Liberals were also facing pressure from the province’s South Shore, where fishing communities remain angry about what they say is the federal Liberals' failure to get the Fisheries Department to crack down on illegal lobster fishing.
With the Tories riding high in the polls, Houston called a snap election on Oct. 27, saying he needed to strengthen his bargaining position with the leader of the country’s unpopular federal Liberal government, especially when it came to securing a new deal on carbon pricing.
What followed was a low-key election campaign that saw Houston offering a no-frills, stay-the-course platform.
The Tory's convincing win — with an increased majority from the 2021 election — breaks a recent trend that has seen other provincial incumbents lose support, or be booted out of office.
Last month, B.C. NDP Premier David Eby barely held on to power when voters outside Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland threw their support behind the Conservative Party of BC, a party that barely existed 18 months ago.
Less than a week later in New Brunswick, Progressive Conservative premier Blaine Higgs lost his bid for a second term after adopting a series of socially conservative measures and alienating much of his caucus. And on Oct. 28, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe won a substantially reduced majority as his Saskatchewan Party was almost shut out of the province's big cities.
During the Nova Scotia election campaign, Houston faced withering criticism from Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and Chender, both of whom accused Houston of ignoring the first law his government passed in 2021, setting July 15, 2025, as the date for the next election.
Chender and Churchill — both contesting their first election as a party leader — accused the premier of breaking his promise for a fixed-date election on the first day of the fall campaign.
At dissolution, Houston’s Tories held 34 seats, the Liberals had 14 seats, the NDP six and there was one Independent.
Houston, a 54-year-old chartered accountant, also told voters he wanted their approval for his plans to deal with a stubborn affordability crisis and a desperate housing shortage that has seen the province’s homeless population soar.
But the telegenic, silver-haired premier repeatedly returned to his complaints about Trudeau. Houston also took aim at Ottawa's refusal to pay the entire cost of shoring up the Chignecto Isthmus, the strip of land between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that is increasingly at risk of severe flooding.
During a televised leaders debate, Churchill took aim at Houston’s bid to capitalize on Trudeau’s slumping popularity.
"Mr. Houston would rather kick and scream and whine than actually do his job and negotiate a better deal for you," said Churchill, a 40-year-old career politician with experience as a policy analyst.
When the Tories released their election platform Nov. 8, Houston said the slim, 28-page document represented a "continuation of a plan that is already working."
By contrast, the hefty platform Houston released in 2021 was 130 pages, and the focus of that campaign was almost entirely on his promise to "fix" a health-care system beset by a shortage of doctors, long wait-times for ambulances and recurring horror stories about people failing to receive proper treatment.
Last week, during another televised leaders debate, Chender and Churchill reminded the premier that the registry for Nova Scotians seeking a family doctor had doubled under his watch to reach more than 140,000.
Houston responded by saying Nova Scotians had to be patient. "The job is not done, for sure, but there has been incredible progress," he said, emphasizing the need for more time rather than big changes.
The premier repeatedly told voters that the province’s economy was growing, and there were hundreds more doctors and thousands more nurses in the province than in 2021. "I was clear with Nova Scotians in 2021 that things would probably get worse before they get better, and they did get worse," he said in the introduction to his party’s platform. "But we're on the right path."
As for affordability, the Tories’ signature promise is to lower the harmonized sales tax by one percentage point to 14 per cent. They also pledged to cap electricity rate increases so that they won't exceed the national average. And they pledged to raise the minimum wage to $16.50 an hour by next year.
On the housing front, Houston promised to follow through on his 2023 promise to build 40,000 homes in four years. During the campaign, the premier said he would press on with that plan, saying, "We're on a good path. We have a plan. The plan is working."
The NDP promised to build 30,000 new affordable rental units by working with non-profits and co-op housing providers. As well, the New Democrats promised a temporary gas tax holiday that would save drivers 15.5 cents per litre. Chender also promised to increase income assistance rates and remove the provincial tax on phone bills, internet services and groceries that are not already tax-free.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 26, 2024.
— With files from Lyndsay Armstrong in New Glasgow, N.S., and Cassidy McMackon in Halifax.
Michael MacDonald, The Canadian Press
