Scrapping B.C.’s carbon tax might make it a little tougher for the B.C. government to manage both its fiscal and its carbon budget.
But B.C. could still reduce its GHG emissions intensity in absence of a consumer carbon tax, provided all the other policy tools in the provincial arsenal are maintained, say climate policy experts.
However, should B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad become premier and live up to his pledges to scrap not just the carbon tax but other key policies as well -- including a low carbon fuel standard, a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and electrification requirements for the LNG industry -- B.C.’s greenhouse gases will soar, they warn, unless a Conservative government replaced some of the tools it scrapped with others.
And that may be just fine with your average British Columbian.
Whereas climate change was a top concern among B.C. voters in 2007, and housing not even in the top five, housing is now top of mind, and climate change has fallen far down the list of concerns, said Mario Canseco of Research Co. It doesn’t even make the top 5.
British Columbians, it appears, have become taxed into complacency on climate change.
Although 54 per cent of British Columbians said they think climate change is real and human caused, and 44 per cent want to see more done to address climate change, ResearchCo polling found 52 per cent agreeing that B.C. should scrap its carbon tax, if a federal carbon tax is scrapped --- something promised by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. It’s a public sentiment that Canseco sums up as “act but don’t tax.”
Even NDP Leader David Eby has promised to end B.C.’s consumer carbon tax, if the federal carbon pricing backstop is ended, though a new output-based carbon pricing system for industry would be maintained.
Only the BC Green Party has vowed it would keep the carbon tax. In fact, the Greens pledge in their platform to increase industrial carbon pricing.
It also pledges to ban the fracking of any new oil and gas wells -- which essentially would end natural gas production in B.C., since most gas production in B.C. today is done through fracking -- prohibit any new LNG projects, impose a province-wide ban on natural gas hookups in new buildings, set a date for phasing out all natural gas production, and spend $20 million a year on “small-scale” solar projects with a goal of having solar account for 15 per cent of B.C.’s electricity generation by 2035.
An effective climate change strategy requires either carbon pricing or regulations, such as low-carbon fuel standards and zero emissions vehicle mandates, according to climate policy experts. So, B.C. could do without a consumer carbon tax, and still see emissions go down, as long as other policies and regulations are maintained.
“You can remove one part, such as the consumer carbon tax, and still have mechanisms in place to reach your targets,” said Jessica McIlroy, buildings program manager for the Pembina Institute. “Where you get into dangerous territory of not reaching any targets is if you remove different existing mandates, policies, rebates or programs and not replace them with something else.”
“I think we can still reduce emissions with the policies the NDP proposes to keep, and additional regulations,” said Katya Rhodes, a climate policy expert the University of Victoria’s School of Public Administration. “What’s not clear to me is what the Conservative government is going to do on emissions.”
“It appears that the Conservatives want to rip up the entire work on climate policy in B.C.,” said Werner Antweiler, associate professor at the University of BC’s Sauder School of Business.
“Quite frankly, as an energy and environmental economist, I am rather dismayed by the proposals from the Conservatives, as they have not articulated a clear vision about climate action, and instead seem to be only interested in promoting fossil fuels no matter what the consequences.”
The Conservatives do have one climate change policy tool in its belt that no other party has – a plan to open B.C. to nuclear power. Otherwise, Rustad has vowed to do away with several key climate action policies.
Rustad was part of the Gordon Campbell B.C. Liberal government when it brought in a revenue-neutral carbon tax of $10 per tonne in 2008, as well as low-carbon fuel and clean electricity standards.
The NDP government abandoned revenue neutrality, and began hiking the carbon tax annually. In April, it hit $80 per tonne, which adds $0.17 to the price of a litre of gasoline, and $0.15 per cubic metre of natural gas. The tax is set to increase by $15 per tonne annually until it hits $170 per tonne in 2030, which is the same schedule as the federal government’s carbon pricing plan.
The low-carbon fuel standard, which requires petroleum companies to add a mix of renewable fuels to gasoline and diesel to reduce its carbon intensity, adds an estimated $0.04 per litre, but gets a much bigger bang for its buck than the carbon tax in terms of efficacy, according to climate change policy experts.
The carbon tax is an easy target because it is so visible, and its critics say it hasn’t worked. B.C.’s total greenhouse gas emissions have barely budged since the carbon tax was implemented. B.C.’s total emissions declined only three per cent between 2007, when its GHG emissions were at 64 million tonnes, and 2021, when they were 62 million tonnes, according to the B.C. government.
But B.C.’s population grew by more than 1 million over that time period. When B.C.’s emissions are divided by population, it shows per capita emissions have declined.
Meagre though that may seem, whatever gains B.C. has made on emissions reductions could be undone, if all the key climate policies are scrapped, Rhodes warns.
“Running LNG on natural gas, removing the carbon tax, removing the low-carbon fuel standard will dramatically increase emissions,” she said.
