A Kamloops-area MLA says he believes poll numbers, which show the BC Conservatives in front of the official Opposition BC United, will turn back in his party’s favour closer to the election date.
“I think we're going to actually see a more normalization of the poll numbers as we get closer to the election,” Kamloops-South Thompson MLA Todd Stone said. “I think people will start to really pay attention and dial into the top-line leadership question once they're kind of forced to think long and hard about it, and that generally happens when the election is around the corner."
BC United, the official Opposition party, have continued to trail the Conservatives in polling data, despite the party only recently re-emerging and gaining a presence in the legislature. To date, BCU has lost four MLAs to the upstart party, with the most recent announcement coming Monday when Surrey South MLA Elenore Sturko crossed the aisle.
Stone told Castanet Kamloops there’s no doubt the conservative name has been “ascendant across the country.”
“There's an immediate pull for a lot of people to the word conservative because there's such a strong appetite for change at the federal level. That’s been consistent,” Stone said.
He said BC United will continue to highlight their ideas for the province, tout the qualities of their candidates and highlight “extremist” views held by the Conservative and NDP candidates in the run up to the election.
Rustad says rise is of party’s own making
Conservative leader John Rustad told Castanet Kamloops while he believes the popularity of Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives has helped the BC Conservatives, he attributes his party’s surge predominantly to their own momentum.
He noted when he became leader last winter, the Conservatives’ polling numbers were still small, despite the federal party’s popularity, and that only changed in the following months.
“The rise has happened since we have been building up this party and having a presence in British Columbia,” Rustad said.
He said he’s viewed polling data addressing the question of whether voters are confusing the BC Conservatives with the federal party or even BC United, and about 85 per cent of respondents indicated they knew the differences.
“Voters are smart, they're capable of making the decisions,” Rustad said. “They're looking for change.”
Rustad said the BC Conservatives were founded back in 1903, the party last formed government back in 1927 and last elected someone to the legislature in the 1970s.
“It's been a very long time since it's had a presence in this province,” Rustad said.
Local United MLAs confident in Kamloops-area support
While the BC Conservative Party has leapfrogged United in the polls, Kamloops area MLAs say they have data showing their support remains strong.
Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Peter Milobar said he and Stone, back in May, made more than 9,000 calls around their respective ridings to gauge their support ahead of the election.
The numbers for Milobar, which he shared with Castanet, showed that of the 344 people who responded to the call, 170 said they would be supporting him in the Oct. 19 election — about 49.4 per cent. Another 135 said they were undecided (39 per cent). The rest responded as supporting “other” 12 per cent.
Milobar said the calls were made at random, and Stone’s results were similar.
“It just shows, I think, that there is a very strong awareness out there and a base,” Milobar said of the survey. “We’re not taking anything for granted. We are working on our local priorities and initiatives that we'll be presenting to the public as we get closer to the election.”
He said the stats show a large number of voters who are still looking to make up their minds, and the results of their poll suggests he and Stone are poised for election victories.
Both Milobar and Stone have said they intend to run under the United banner this fall.
United defectors now at four
Meanwhile, more United MLAs have moved over to the BC Conservatives in the past few days following Rustad, MLA for Nechako Lakes, who joined the Conservatives last winter. Bruce Banman of Abbotsford South joined him in September.
Surrey South MLA Elenore Sturko announced on Monday she was joining the Conservatives, having lost faith BCU could win the upcoming election. Cariboo-Chilcotin’s Lorne Doerkson crossed the floor last Friday, expressing similar disappointment at a lack of an alliance between the two parties and saying momentum now clearly lies with the Conservatives.
Last fall, polling data showed the upstart BC Conservative Party jump out ahead of BC United (formerly the BC Liberal party) to grab second place behind the governing NDP — a phenomenon Stone and United leader Kevin Falcon attributed to voters confusing the provincial party with the federal Conservatives, whose popularity has been on the rise.
“That support’s not real. The vast majority of that support will end up back with BC United as it always has when we were BC Liberal,” Falcon said.
Historically, BC United has been known as a coalition party consisting of both politically liberal- and conservative-leaning politicians and followers. The party recently underwent a rebrand.
Back in October, Stone said the party’s advertising campaign would be key to familiarizing voters that the United party is the former Liberals who are the official Opposition right-of-centre party in B.C.
